Forecast: Colo. Thanksgiving Travel Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels

DENVER (Nov. 16, 2022) - Even among a hazy outlook colored by concerns about inflation, a softening economy, and a stark jump in both seasonal illnesses and Covid-19, Coloradans are clear on one thing: Thanksgiving travel is back.

That's per AAA's latest travel forecast, which found that 951,000 Coloradans will travel 50 miles or more for Thanksgiving. That's 26,000 (2.8%) more Colorado travelers than last year's holiday, and just 7,000 (0.73%) fewer than 2019, which remains the statewide record.  

These Coloradans will join the ranks of 54.6 million Americans on the roads and at the airports, just below pre-pandemic levels, with Colorado travel rebounding slightly higher than the national average. 

"Travel is roaring back from the pandemic," said Skyler McKinley, regional director of public affairs for AAA. "Facing high gas prices, other inflationary pressures, and a wobbly economy, travel spending still hit its highest point since the pandemic began. AAA expects busy roads and long lines at the airport, so give yourself extra early and be as flexible as you can with your travel plans."

89% of Holiday Travelers will Drive
Despite a year of staggeringly high gas prices, 89% of all Thanksgiving travelers will drive. AAA forecasts 48.65 million Americans will set out for a holiday road trip, in an increase of 203,000 drivers over last year. 

In Colorado, 841,000 folks will take to the roads in a slight increase over 2021. 

Colorado Gas Prices Stabilize
Pump prices are trending downward in Colorado, though some regionalized spikes are expected around the Thanksgiving holiday. 

On Tuesday, Colorado drivers paid an average price of $3.45 per gallon - well below the national average of $3.76. Colorado gas prices currently sit about a nickel below last year, although they're up around 60 cents over 2019. 

Prices are lowest in Greeley, at $3.30 per gallon, and at their highest in Vail, at $3.99. 

Busiest Days to Travel
If you're hitting the road for the holidays, leave early. Travelers should expect much heavier than normal congestion Monday-Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Traffic will be lighter during the morning and late evening hours and on Thanksgiving Day.

11/23 - Worst Time: 11:00am - 8:00pm | Best Time: Before 8am, After 8pm
11/24 - Worst Time: 11:00am - 3:00pm | Best Time: Before 11am, After 6pm
11/25 - Worst Time: 4:00pm - 8:00pm | Best Time: Before 11am, After 8pm
11/26 - Worst Time: 4:00pm - 8:00pm | Best Time: Before 2pm, After 8pm
11/27 - Worst Time: 4:00pm - 8:00pm | Best Time: Before 11am, After 8pm

AAA to Rescue 411,000 Stranded Motorists
More than 411,000 drivers will need AAA roadside assistance during the holiday weekend. The most common calls will relate to dead batteries, flat tires, and lockouts. AAA encourages drivers to get a full vehicle inspection before they hit the road to check everything out from the tires up - including oil, the air filter, and wiper blades. We can help you find a mechanic you can trust at AAA.com/AutoRepair. 

"Move Over for Me"
With more folks hitting the roads, the danger is multiplied for those at the roadside. AAA reminds motorists to slow down and move over for first responders and tow trucks, as is required by Colorado law. You should extend the same courtesy to folks with disabled vehicles. 

"Every single holiday traveler, tow truck driver, first responder, and road crew deserves to make it home safely this Thanksgiving," McKinley said. "Saving a life is as easy as slowing down and moving over whenever you see any flashing hazard lights at the roadside."

Learn more about AAA's "Move Over for Me" campaign. 

Air Travel Nears Pre-Pandemic Levels
Thanksgiving travelers should expect long lines at the airport. Across the country, air travel is up nearly 8% over last year - with 4.5 million Americans flying to their Thanksgiving destinations. That's an increase of more than 33,000 air passengers and nearly 99% of the 2019 volume.

Flight delays and even cancellations won't be uncommon, with winter weather, staffing challenges, and strong demand coming together to create a hectic travel environment. 

Tips for Air Travelers:

• Check in early online. 

• Monitor your flight status using your air carrier's mobile app.

• Arrive 2-3 hours before your scheduled departure. 

• Pack medications an an extra set of clothes in your carry-on bag, just in case your flight is delayed or cancelled. 

Tips for Air Travelers Who Haven't Booked Yet:

• Book a flight that leaves early in the day. Flights in the afternoon and evening are more susceptible to delays and cancellations.

• Book a direct flight. Otherwise, build in extra time between connections - in case your first flight is delayed.

• Consider traveling on Thanksgiving Day. This could offer the best combination of availability and price. 

Travel Prices: Mostly Higher

• Airfares cost 22% more than last year: The lowest round-trip airfare costs $166 vs. $135 in 2021. 

• Hotels cost 17% more than 2021: A mid-range AAA Three Diamond Property will run $218 per night, up from $187 last year.

• Car Rentals cost 7% less, with an average daily rate of $90. 

View the full Leisure Travel Index for a breakdown on pricing.

Most Popular Travel Destinations
Based on hotel bookings at AAA.com

1) Orlando, FL
2) Anaheim, CA
3) Las Vegas, NV
4) New York, NY
5) Atlanta, GA
6) Phoenix, AZ
7) Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
8) Denver, CO
9) Chicago, IL
10) Charlotte, NC

Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period
For purposes of this forecast, the Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the five-day period from Wednesday, November 23 to Sunday, November 27. The Wednesday to Sunday period is consistent with previous years.

Methodology
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence's proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment; output; household net worth; asset prices, including stock indices; interest rates; housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET's TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitorsm. The PERFORMANCE/Monitorsm is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends and forecast U.S. travel behavior-all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 10, 2022.